Midwife Views on Amniotomy to Speed Up Labour

Midwife Views on Amniotomy to Speed Up Labour Abstract This dissertation considers the views of midwives on the procedure of amniotomy with the specific relevance of its use in speeding up labour. The available literature is considered in detail to try to establish the current evidence base for the assumption that amniotomy does speed up labour and it finds that the evidence is poor, both in terms of number and quality of the papers available. One of the biggest problems appears to be that it is very difficult to carry out a study that isolates the specific and unique effects of amniotomy on the speed of labour from all of the other potential confounding factors that can influence the eventual outcome. There appears to be a gap in the literature in specific regard to the midwife’s views on the subject. A proposal is therefore made for a pilot project to evaluate the midwife’s views by the means of a qualitative survey using the semi-structured interview technique. The rationale for such a study structure is discussed in detail. Acknowledgements (Client to personalise) Contents page Abstract Acknowledgements Contents Purpose of the study Literature Review What is already known? Amniotomy and induction of labour Complications associated with amniotomy What are the perceived benefits of amniotomy? Does amniotomy speed up delivery? Midwife’s views on the subject Methodology Search history. Classification of evidence levels Research question or hypothesis Study design Sample Data Collection Rigour Ethical Issues Budget Timetable. Dissemination of findings Proposed semi-structured interview questions References Purpose of the study: The research question. The procedure of amniotomy was first described in the 18th century. Despite having therefore been in constant use for over 200 years, its effect on the induction and the course of labour still remains a matter of dispute and conflicting evidence. (Greenwood C et al. 2003) Amniotomy is generally held to be the artificial rupture of intact membranes with a view to facilitating, stimulating or inducing labour. (ODriscoll K et al. 1986). This dissertation has purposely started with a definition of amniotomy that is over 20 years old. During the course of the exploration of the evidence base surrounding the procedure of amniotomy we shall consider whether this definition is still held to be true in current practice. The procedure is typically done with gloved hands and the healthcare professional ruptures the amniotic sac with an amnihook (or similar instrument) between contractions, as this reduces the risk of cord prolapse because the amniotic fluid is under less pressure. (Kirby R S 2004). The hand is kept in the vagina allowing the fluid to drain in a controlled manner and the nature (colour consistency and amount) of the fluid is noted. It would be considered good practice to assess the foetal heart both immediately prior to the procedure and again immediately after it to check for foetal distress due to cord compression. Many authorities advocate performing the procedure in the semi-sitting position in order to minimise the effects of aortocaval compression and thereby optimise the blood supply to the uterus. (Burnett A F 2000) Indications for amniotomy still include the â€Å"promotion of labour†. This can be taken to mean both the induction of labour and the speeding up of labour (Cummingham F G et al. 2005) however, hard evidence for either is difficult to find for reasons that we shall discuss. Literature Review What is already known? For ease of presentation, this section will be divided up into various sub-headings considering the different aspects of amniotomy as a procedure Amniotomy and induction of labour Amniotomy is frequently cited as a means of inducing labour particularly if the cervix is considered to be â€Å"ripe†. Unfortunately amniotomy alone is an unpredictable inducer of labour with the possibility of long intervals between amniotomy and the onset of significant contractions. The Mouldin trial considered a direct prospective comparison of amniotomy alone and amniotomy with an associated oxytocin infusion. The results showed a statistically significant difference in the two groups with the latter group having a shorter induction to delivery interval. (Mouldin P G et al. 1996) There is a huge variation in the literature concerning the ability of amniotomy to hasten the onset of labour. Some early papers suggested that the effect was only minimal (Caldeyro-Barcia R 1975) whereas the majority of others suggest a much more obvious effect. As with other areas of investigation, difficulty arises in trying to separate out the effects of the amniotomy from the myriad of other variable factors that are present when a woman goes into labour. Friedman questions whether amniotomy hastens labour at all since many of the prospective trials have considered the case when amniotomy is done in early labour when the contractions would naturally begin to accelerate in any event (Friedman, E.A 1998) Complications associated with amniotomy This is a particularly contentious area with different authorities citing not only different associations of complications but significantly differing incidences as well. If we consider the Sheiner paper (Sheiner E et al. 2000) we can show a number of significant findings when early amniotomy was compared with both premature rupture of membranes (PROM) and oxytocin induction of labour. The significant differences found between the groups included a higher rate of caesarean section with 26.7% in the amniotomy group and 11.6% in the PROM and 16.9% in the oxytocin groups. It should be noted however, the authors performed a number of subsidiary analyses and showed that when the incidence of a previous caesarean section was controlled for then the amniotomy group had a similar incidence of caesarean section to the other groups. This would imply that amniotomy is more likely to be considered an option when a previous caesarean section has occurred. The authors make no comment as to why the y believe this might be. A much larger and more rigorous survey (Segal D et al. 2000) reviewed the outcomes of nearly 2000 cases of early amniotomy performed in association with a poor cervical score (Bishop scores of Amniotomy has been shown to increase the incidence of abnormalities in the patterns of foetal heart rate.( Goffinct F et al. 1997) Again this effect is hard to isolate convincingly as the risk may be consistently underestimated because women who do not have amniotomy are more likely to be given oxytocin which also increases the incidence of abnormal foetal heart rate patterns. (Rouse D J et al. 1999) Amniotomy may also be associated with an increase in infection rates. (Ventura S J et al. 1997) What are the perceived benefits of amniotomy? A number of authoritative texts state that routine early amniotomy can shorten labour by a variable amount, usually one or two hours (viz. Vincent M (2005) and Sheiner E, et al. (2000) and Albers L L et al. (1996)), Others suggest that it may reduce the use of oxytocics and the number of women who report the most intense degrees of pain during labour. (Klaus M H (1998) This picture is however, clouded by the fact that modern practice with its use of oxytocin (which makes labour more painful) and analgesia, including the epidural, which obviously reduces the overall pain experience, makes the statistical analysis of the relationship between amniotomy and pain very difficult Amniotomy has been cited as being indicated when there is a need for closer monitoring of the foetus allowing the direct attachment of scalp electrodes and incidentally evaluating whether the baby has passed meconium into the amniotic fluid. (Thornton J G et al. 1994). The presence of meconium is a significant clinical sign and is associated with an increased foetal morbidity and mortality (Ramin K D et al. 1996) Although its observation is enhanced by amniotomy, it is only of peripheral relevance to our considerations in this dissertation and therefore will not be considered further. Other authorities observe that this is not a good indication for amniotomy as the release of the amniotic fluid may expose the umbilical cord to increased compression during contractions. (Klaus M H 1998) Amniotomy also allows the positioning of an intrauterine pressure catheter in order to measure uterine contractions. Does amniotomy speed up delivery? This is an issue that has appeared in many older papers. A significant trial of 20 years ago (Seitchik J et al. 1985) concluded that the procedure of amniotomy appeared to enhance the cervical dilatation rate in patients with already well-dilated cervices and that are already dilating at a satisfactory rate and it conversely slows dilatation in some other patients, particularly those whose cervices are less dilated. This finding is cited in a number of contemporary text books. The difficulty is that the findings in this paper are only evidence base level 3. Many other papers refer to the trophic effects of amniotomy but none have had the discriminatory power to isolate the effects of amniotomy from the multitude of other variables which are inevitably present during the process of labour. The paper by Sherman (Sherman D J et al. 2002) primarily considers the patterns of foetal heart rate during the induction of labour and, in doing so, provides circumstantial evidence that amniotomy increases the speed of labour. Amniotomy was however, only performed in this trial if the cervix had dilated to more than 3 cms. without an associated spontaneous rupture of membranes. Oxytocin was also used in a significant number of cases thereby masking any effect which amniotomy alone might have. A different view is expressed by Pozaic who considered the case proven and puts forward the view that amniotomy should only be reserved for cases where there is abnormally slow progress of labour and then amniotomy should be performed to speed up the process. Again this is little more than level 4 evidence as the author does not cite what her evidence base is for making such an assumption. (Pozaic S 2004) To present a balanced argument one can cite the work of Steer (actually written when he was a house officer but then went on to become a professor of obstetrics), who published a controlled study of two matched groups of patients, all of whom had oxytocin induced labour. One group had their membranes ruptured and the others were allowed to rupture spontaneously. Steer found that the duration of labour was shorter in all patients who had ruptured membranes although, for reasons that were not explained, the uterine contractions were found to be at their greatest when the membranes were intact. In short, there was no evidence that amniotomy increased the speed of labour and there was evidence to suggest that the uterine activity was greatest in the group with membranes intact until well into labour. (Steer P J et al. 1975) Midwife’s views on the subject In terms of determining midwife’s views on the subject, there appears to be an almost complete gap in the literature on the subject. Extensive searching reveals no definitive authoritative texts on the subject and a very few that have sought the patient’s view on the issue. The Lavender paper (Lavender T et al. 1999) considered the issue only peripherally as part of a larger exploration of patient’s views and concluded that women who had long and protracted labours welcomed virtually any type of intervention that was perceived to reduce the time in labour and this included amniotomy. Clearly it is likely that this was perceived by the women as a â€Å"labour shortening procedure† and it is very unlikely that any discussion of informed evidence base would have taken place prior to its use. These issues are explored further in the more recent and larger qualitative investigation by Hodnett who considered the experiences and evaluations of childbirth in terms of overall pain experience. The paper is long and involved and, in the main, peripheral to our considerations here other then the fact that one of the main factors that the women cited as significant in terms of their positive appreciation of the process of labour was their perception of the attitude and behaviour of the midwives and this was rated as being more significant than the actual procedures that they employed. This finding appeared to override other factors including such variables as â€Å"age, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, childbirth preparation, the physical birth environment, pain, immobility, medical interventions, and continuity of care†. (Hodnett, E D. 2002). One can only therefore speculate as to whether this finding vicariously influences the decisions made by the midwives in terms of tr ying to provide a complete service to their patients. Another paper which is peripherally relevant to this issue is the well written and thought-provoking essay and investigation by Sookhoo (Sookhoo M L et al. 2002) which considered the wider issues of how midwives learn their clinical skills and the mechanisms by which they acquire their practical knowledge. The authors devote a substantial proportion of their paper to how this knowledge actually influences their professional judgements in both the assessment and the progress of the course of labour. This particular paper is worthy of examination on several levels, not only for its actual content and results, but because it is structured on a grounded theory premise and conducts a number of semi-structured interviews and then attempts to construct theories from the results. It is very significant that a major finding in this paper was that the authors hypothesise that a major determinant of clinical activity for a midwife is the way in which she conceptualises uncertainty (which clearly is a major element in the management of labour). It is also significant that they found that one of the major techniques for avoiding uncertainty was to rely upon conventions and put trust in specific procedures â€Å"almost as a ritual†. The authors suggest that the experienced midwife tends to draw upon a much wider range of evidence and experience which has been accumulated through their clinical practice than the novice midwife who tends to rely on guidelines and strategies which they t end to see as predictive and protective. This has great relevance to the practice of amniotomy as Sookhoo et al. found that the experienced midwives tended to avoid inappropriate intrusion into the process of labour as a matter of routine. We should therefore be aware that amniotomy may be conceived as â€Å"inappropriate intrusion† by the experienced midwife and our study should perhaps be structured to evaluate this possibility. Perhaps the last word on this subject should go to the overview of the subject published by Katz Early amniotomy remained an independent risk factor for operative delivery on multiple logistic analysis controlling for confounding variables. These findings imply that caution is needed when deciding to perform early surgical induction unless it is a final option or other approaches are contraindicated. (Katz, Miriam 1999) Methodology Search history. The mechanism of the literature review was to conduct a number of literature searches through both electronic and hard copy data bases at the local University Library and the local Post Graduate Library (client to personalise). A number of search terms were used including: amniotomy; amniotomy knowledge; amniotomy indications; amniotomy benefits: amniotomy complications; amniotomy speed of labour; midwife views amniotomy; midwife procedures. The electronic databases included Bandolier and The Cochrane Library and Cinhal. These searches provided a great many texts which were accessed either electronically or in hard copy and then critically reviewed to ascertain the level of the evidence presented. The level of evidence was categorised into the following levels. Classification of evidence levels The highest level of evidence available was then used to support each point raised Research question or hypothesis It appears to be generally accepted that evidence based practice should be the â€Å"gold standard† of modern clinical practice (NMC 2004). However, many experienced healthcare professionals would attest to the fact that clinical decisions in their everyday practice is still influenced by individual experience and advice from colleagues. (Williams P R 2000). The rationale behind this study derives from the suspicion that many midwives use amniotomy to speed up labour and that there appears to be little in the way of a hard evidence base to support this view. It is the intention of this study to try to define the degree that individual midwife practice is determined (in this specific regard) by their own experience and professionally received advice and to what extent it is determined by reliance on their own independently derived evidence base. Study design This study will be qualitative in design. There are a number of different qualitative approaches that could be adopted (DeWalt, K. M et al. 1998) and brief consideration will be given to each. The phenomenological approach is primarily a philosophical mechanism which employs that technique of concentrating on the conscious and subjective experiences of the subjects. (Hammond et al, 1995). It is therefore written from the first person viewpoint. Such an approach is not without its critics however, as the classic approach is from the third person (impersonal) viewpoint (Ahmed, 2006). Hammond characterises the phenomenological genre as â€Å"unconstrained by scientific rigour† as it is simply a recording of the experience as the observer experiences and interprets it. It is therefore not purged of subjectivity and bias as many other scientific approaches are. The phenomenological approach was considered for this project and discounted as it is conceded that such an approach may give rise to a very idiosyncratic view of the subject and may not be representative of the majority view. Grounded theory may, at first sight, appear to be a suitable approach for this study. The prime element in a grounded theory study is the fact that the data is obtained and then the investigators then attempt to formulate or identify appropriate theories from the processed data. (Glaser, 1992). This approach may seem suitable by virtue of the fact that midwives could be approached and data obtained to see if there are any constant factors which motivate their particular pattern of behaviour when considering the procedure of amniotomy. A problem may arise however, because of the intrinsic need for theory formulation. Charmaz characterises the problem by stating â€Å"It compels the researcher to impose explanations were no explanations naturally exist, or indeed are necessary†. (Charmaz, K. 2006). In this study it is the intention to explore midwife’s views on whether amniotomy increases the speed of labour rather then to specifically generate theories to explain these views. For this reason grounded theory was discounted as a possible approach After much consideration it was decided to adopt an ethnographic approach to the study. This involves a hybrid approach with an analysis termed by Agar as being from the point of view of â€Å"The professional strangerâ€Å" (Agar, 1996). This approach has elements of both qualitative and quantitative analysis and is primarily carried out using the analysis of â€Å"in the field† interviews of midwives. Kottak describes the ethnographic approach (in the broadest terms) as collecting data â€Å"in the field by living among and blending in with a particular group, society or culture, observing and recording their particular habits and detailing their experiences and reactions† (Kottak, 2005). The researcher is expected to be a part of the community studied but to â€Å"retain a certain degree of detachment, impartiality and objectivityâ€Å" (Kottak, 2005). The object of this study requires the observer to record the number of times a midwife uses the procedure of amniotomy and then to obtain her views on the rationale for the procedure through the mechanism of the semi-structured interview. Sample Constraints on time and finances will largely dictate the overall size of the project (client I have no idea what potential funds you have available for this project so I have made a number of assumptions that you will have to modify if they are not correct). It is considered prudent to make a pilot study in order to test the validity of the interview questions and to also trial the analysis techniques. The initial pilot would be in the labour ward of the author’s hospital (client to personalise here) and would therefore potentially include 12 midwives. If the study were to yield potentially significant findings, then its scope could be widened to include staff from different sites and thereby include perhaps different protocols and possibly different work practices. This would have the benefit that it is possible that certain work practices may be determined by peer pressure in a specific geographical location and broadening the scope of the investigation would help to minimise the biasing effect of such practices. (Rosner B 2006). There is also considerable merit in trying to ensure that the cohort of midwives studied contains a wide spectrum of experience, ideally from the newly qualified midwife through to the most experienced, as it would be unlikely that the work practices would be the same in all groups. (Strauss, A et al. 1990). It is therefore clearly of benefit to try to structure the sample to include representatives from all of these groups in order to minimise the effects of such potential bias. (Carr L T 1994). It foll ows from this requirement that the study group will be asked to provide information relating to their years of experience in addition to other demographic markers. Analysis of the pilot study will help to determine whether purposeful sampling or general sampling will be appropriate in the final study. (Moher D et al. 1999). In the former method, subjects are specifically chosen because of the likelihood of their being able to give valuable information to the study. Patton describes this method of recruitment as â€Å"selecting only a limited number of information-rich cases for investigation, in order to obtain a particularly detailed insight into an issue. (Patton 1999). Although this may be, at first sight, useful in trying to maximise the information yield of the study, it has the obvious downside that it is a source of considerable potential bias giving rise to a small and potentially unrepresentative sample. (Patton 1999). A variation of this technique of recruitment is called snowballing whereby one key subject is asked to recommend others who may have either specialist knowledge or a specific interest in the subject in question. This te chnique is recommended by MacQueen as â€Å"being particularly suitable in qualitative studies, where detailed and in-depth understanding of a little-known subject is required† (MacQueen K M, et al. 2004). Although this clearly has the ability to optimise the collection of significant information, it does not eliminate the potential for bias apparent in the purposeful sampling technique. If we consider that amniotomy is a widely used practice amongst midwives, then neither method is sufficiently useful to outweigh the potential bias that they would engender. For these reasons it is considered appropriate to approach all of the midwives in the local unit to take part in the study. Data Collection In line with the principles of the ethnographic approach, this study will adopt the dual mechanisms of direct observation and the semi-structured interview. (Breakwell et al, 1999). The semi-structured interview technique is explored in depth by De Martino who contrasts the technique with unstructured and fully structured interviews. The former â€Å"essentially amounts to an informal conversation with no guiding principles, and structured interviews are characterised by the asking of a predetermined and fixed set of questions with strict guidelines. Semi-structured interviews however, entail asking a preset group of questions but with some flexibility, so that interesting leads can be explored further† (De Martino B et al. 2006). The semi-structured interview technique is considered to be the most useful for this type of study because of the lack of rigid constraints placed upon both interviewer and subject. The questions are designed to be â€Å"open† thereby allowing the subject to introduce appropriate topics which can then be followed up at the interviewer’s discretion. This flexibility is perhaps the most appropriate for this type of study as the interviewer does not know in advance just what factors influence the midwife’s opinions. Frey broadens the issue by suggesting that, in this context, attitudes of the subjects can be typically analysed in any of three â€Å"dimensions†, namely: emotion, cognition, and behaviour. (Frey et al. 2001). It might therefore be important to structure the semi-structured interview questions so that they cover all three of these dimensions. Typical examples in this regard might be (a)â€Å"How does performing as amniotomy on your patients make you feel emotionally?† (b)â€Å"What are your views about amniotomy and the speed of labour?† (c)â€Å"How do you actually choose to speed up your patient‘s labour?† This may not prove to be completely relevant, as one could suggest that emotional involvement is actually counterproductive in this particular circumstance. It is clear that a large element of discretion will have to be left with the interviewer as it is likely that the answers given may clearly be either carefully considered and evidence based on one extreme or superficial and unconsidered on the other. This flexibility will allow the subject to impart their own intention without being unduly hampered by rigid questioning and should allow the emergence of a detailed set of data which reflects each individual midwife‘s opinions and practices clearly. (Concato, et al. 2000) In addition to the semi-structured interviews there will also be an element of direct observation to ascertain the labours that are managed with amniotomy and to contrast them with the labours that are managed without the procedure. It may well be of considerable value to include an element of questioning in the semi-structured interview phase that asks about the rationale for performing the procedure Data Analysis Data analysis can be carried out using time-honoured methods originally developed in the social science setting with various qualitative analytical methods. (Vickers, A. J et al. 2001). The most commonly used is probably thematic analysis (Braun V et al. 2006) which involves coding the themes that are derived from the responses. The themes are initially identified during the semi-structured interview stage and are then assigned a code (or number) depending upon the frequency with which the various subjects refer to the particular theme. From reading Braun it is apparent that there is considerable flexibility in the coding and identification of the themes (which is in contrast to the mechanisms described for both grounded theory and other forms of qualitative analysis). Some authorities find that this flexibility and lack of proscription is a negative feature of the thematic approach but Braun argues that it enhances the quality of the analysis by allowing a â€Å"richness of analysi s not provided for by other methods†. (Braun V et al. 2006). This is clearly a complex exercise and it will be attempted in the pilot study by the author, but it is accepted that it may be more appropriate to enlist the help of an experienced researcher to assist in the analysis of the full project It is considered likely that the various themes will be obvious from the data obtained. Braun suggests a five stage mechanism for optimum data retrieval, namely: (1)Familiarising oneself with the data. (2)Developing a coding system and identifying bits of data consistent with specific codes. (3)Looking for and identifying themes in the data (4)Labelling or naming the themes identified, with appropriate justification (e.g. quotations from interview transcripts) (5)Writing up the report, including data extracts, in a compelling fashion. (Braun V et al. 2006). The interviews will be initially tape recorded and then transcribed in order to allow for identification of the various themes. It is clearly likely that the themes will be expressed in different terms by different subjects and therefore a degree of latitude will be needed by the interpreter to ensure that similar themes will be included and analysed together. (Berlin J A et al. 1989) Rigour The value of any study ultimately depends upon the rigor with which it is conducted. (Green J et al. 1998). It is in the very nature of a qualitative study that it does not intrinsically possess the precision of the classical quantitative study. It is therefore of great importance that attention is paid to reliability and repeatability during both the design and execution stages of the study. Triangulation is one mechanism that can help in this regard. (Piantadosi S. 1997). This requires comparison of the results obtained by one method with those obtained by another. The classic structure is to see whether the data obtained from the study matches with that obtained from subject feedback. (Leaverton PE. 1998). Berwick also suggests that any apparently aberrant or atypical cases should be examined as these will help to establish the overall validity of the study. (Berwick D. 1996) Ethical Issues It is central to the instigation of any study that the approval of a Local or National Ethics Committe

Fiction and Work

1970. Choose a character from a novel or play of recognized literary merit and write an essay in which you (a) briefly describe the standards of the fictional society in which the character exists and (b) show how the character is affected by and responds to those standards. In your essay do not merely summarize the plot. 1970 Also. Choose a work of recognized literary merit in which a specific inanimate object (e. g. , a seashell, a handkerchief, a painting) is important, and write an essay in which you show how two or three of the purposes the object serves are related to one another. 971. The significance of a title such as The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn is so easy to discover. However, in other works (for example, Measure for Measure) the full significance of the title becomes apparent to the reader only gradually. Choose two works and show how the significance of their respective titles is developed through the authors' use of devices such as contrast, repetition, allusion, and point of view. 1972. In retrospect, the reader often discovers that the first chapter of a novel or the opening scene of a drama introduces some of the major themes of the work.Write an essay about the opening scene of a drama or the first chapter of a novel in which you explain how it functions in this way. 1973. An effective literary work does not merely stop or cease; it concludes. In the view of some critics, a work that does not provide the pleasure of significant closure has terminated with an artistic fault. A satisfactory ending is not, however, always conclusive in every sense; significant closure may require the reader to abide with or adjust to ambiguity and uncertainty. In an essay, discuss the ending of a novel or play of acknowledged literary merit.Explain precisely how and why the ending appropriately or inappropriately concludes the work. Do not merely summarize the plot. 1974. Choose a work of literature written before 1900. Write an essay in which you present a rguments for and against the work's relevance for a person in 1974. Your own position should emerge in the course of your essay. You may refer to works of literature written after 1900 for the purpose of contrast or comparison. 1975. Although literary critics have tended to praise the unique in literary characterizations, many authors have employed the stereotyped character successfully.Select one work of acknowledged literary merit and in a well-written essay, show how the conventional or stereotyped character or characters function to achieve the author's purpose. 1975 Also. Unlike the novelist, the writer of a play does not use his own voice and only rarely uses a narrator's voice to guide the audience's responses to character and action. Select a play you have read and write an essay in which you explain the techniques the playwright uses to guide his audience's responses to the central characters and the action.You might consider the effect on the audience of things like settin g, the use of comparable and contrasting characters, and the characters' responses to each other. Support your argument with specific references to the play. Do not give a plot summary. 1976. The conflict created when the will of an individual opposes the will of the majority is the recurring theme of many novels, plays, and essays. Select the work of an essayist who is in opposition to his or her society; or from a work of recognized literary merit, select a fictional character who is in opposition to his or her society.In a critical essay, analyze the conflict and discuss the moral and ethical implications for both the individual and the society. Do not summarize the plot or action of the work you choose. 1977. In some novels and plays certain parallel or recurring events prove to be significant. In an essay, describe the major similarities and differences in a sequence of parallel or recurring events in a novel or play and discuss the significance of such events. Do not merely su mmarize the plot. 1978. Choose an implausible or strikingly unrealistic incident or character in a work of fiction or drama of recognized literary merit.Write an essay that explains how the incident or character is related to the more realistic of plausible elements in the rest of the work. Avoid plot summary. 1979. Choose a complex and important character in a novel or a play of recognized literary merit who might on the basis of the character's actions alone be considered evil or immoral. In a well-organized essay, explain both how and why the full presentation of the character in the work makes us react more sympathetically than we otherwise might. Avoid plot summary. 1980. A recurring theme in literature is the classic war between a passion and responsibility.For instance, a personal cause, a love, a desire for revenge, a determination to redress a wrong, or some other emotion or drive may conflict with moral duty. Choose a literary work in which a character confronts the demand s of a private passion that conflicts with his or her responsibilities. In a well-written essay show clearly the nature of the conflict, its effects upon the character, and its significance to the work. 1981. The meaning of some literary works is often enhanced by sustained allusion to myths, the Bible, or other works of literature.Select a literary work that makes use of such a sustained reference. Then write a well-organized essay in which you explain the allusion that predominates in the work and analyze how it enhances the work's meaning. 1982. In great literature, no scene of violence exists for its own sake. Choose a work of literary merit that confronts the reader or audience with a scene or scenes of violence. In a well-organized essay, explain how the scene or scenes contribute to the meaning of the complete work. Avoid plot summary. 1983. From a novel or play of literary merit, select an important character who is a villain.Then, in a well-organized essay, analyze the natu re of the character's villainy and show how it enhances meaning in the work. Do not merely summarize the plot. 1984. Select a line or so of poetry, or a moment or scene in a novel, epic poem, or play that you find especially memorable. Write an essay in which you identify the line or the passage, explain its relationship to the work in which it is found, and analyze the reasons for its effectiveness. 1985. A critic has said that one important measure of a superior work of literature is its ability to produce in the reader a healthy confusion of pleasure and disquietude.Select a literary work that produces this â€Å"healthy confusion. † Write an essay in which you explain the sources of the â€Å"pleasure and disquietude† experienced by the readers of the work. 1986. Some works of literature use the element of time in a distinct way. The chronological sequence of events may be altered, or time may be suspended or accelerated. Choose a novel, an epic, or a play of recog nized literary merit and show how the author's manipulation of time contributes to the effectiveness of the work as a whole. Do not merely summarize the plot. 987. Some novels and plays seem to advocate changes in social or political attitudes or in traditions. Choose such a novel or play and note briefly the particular attitudes or traditions that the author apparently wishes to modify. Then analyze the techniques the author uses to influence the reader's or audience's views. Avoid plot summary. 1988. Choose a distinguished novel or play in which some of the most significant events are mental or psychological; for example, awakenings, discoveries, changes in consciousness. In a well-organized ssay, describe how the author manages to give these internal events the sense of excitement, suspense, and climax usually associated with external action. Do not merely summarize the plot. 1989. In questioning the value of literary realism, Flannery O'Connor has written, â€Å"I am interested in making a good case for distortion because I am coming to believe that it is the only way to make people see. † Write an essay in which you â€Å"make a good case for distortion,† as distinct from literary realism. Analyze how important elements of the work you choose are â€Å"distorted† and explain how these distortions contribute to the effectiveness of the work.Avoid plot summary. 1990. Choose a novel or play that depicts a conflict between a parent (or a parental figure) and a son or daughter. Write an essay in which you analyze the sources of the conflict and explain how the conflict contributes to the meaning of the work. Avoid plot summary. 1991. Many plays and novels use contrasting places (for example, two countries, two cities or towns, two houses, or the land and the sea) to represent opposed forces or ideas that are central to the meaning of the work. Choose a novel or play that contrasts two such places.Write an essay explaining how the places di ffer, what each place represents, and how their contrast contributes to the meaning of the work. 1992. In a novel or play, a confidant (male) or a confidante (female) is a character, often a friend or relative of the hero or heroine, whose role is to be present when the hero or heroine needs a sympathetic listener to confide in. Frequently the result is, as Henry James remarked, that the confidant or confidante can be as much â€Å"the reader's friend as the protagonist's. † However, the author sometimes uses this character for other purposes as well.Choose a confidant or confidante from a novel or play of recognized literary merit and write an essay in which you discuss the various ways this character functions in the work. You may write your essay on one of the following novels or plays or on another of comparable quality. Do not write on a poem or short story. 1993. â€Å"The true test of comedy is that it shall awaken thoughtful laughter. † Choose a novel, play, or long poem in which a scene or character awakens â€Å"thoughtful laughter† in the reader. Write an essay in which you show why this laughter is â€Å"thoughtful† and how it contributes to the meaning of the work. 994. In some works of literature, a character who appears briefly, or does not appear at all, is a significant presence. Choose a novel or play of literary merit and write an essay in which you show how such a character functions in the work. You may wish to discuss how the character affects action, theme, or the development of other characters. Avoid plot summary. 1995. Writers often highlight the values of a culture or a society by using characters who are alienated from that culture or society because of gender, race, class, or creed.Choose a novel or a play in which such a character plays a significant role and show how that character's alienation reveals the surrounding society's assumptions or moral values. 1996. The British novelist Fay Weldon offers t his observation about happy endings. â€Å"The writers, I do believe, who get the best and most lasting response from their readers are the writers who offer a happy ending through moral development. By a happy ending, I do not mean mere fortunate events — a marriage or a last minute rescue from death — but some kind of spiritual reassessment or moral reconciliation, even with the self, even at death. Choose a novel or play that has the kind of ending Weldon describes. In a well-written essay, identify the â€Å"spiritual reassessment or moral reconciliation† evident in the ending and explain its significance in the work as a whole. 1997. Novels and plays often include scenes of weddings, funerals, parties, and other social occasions. Such scenes may reveal the values of the characters and the society in which they live. Select a novel or play that includes such a scene and, in a focused essay, discuss the contribution the scene makes to the meaning of the work as a whole.You may choose a work from the list below or another novel or play of literary merit. 1998. In his essay â€Å"Walking,† Henry David Thoreau offers the following assessment of literature: In literature it is only the wild that attracts us. Dullness is but another name for tameness. It is the uncivilized free and wild thinking in Hamlet and The Iliad, in all scriptures and mythologies, not learned in schools, that delights us. From the works that you have studied in school, choose a novel, play, or epic poem that you may initially have thought was conventional and tame but that you now value for its â€Å"uncivilized free and wild thinking. Write an essay in which you explain what constitutes its â€Å"uncivilized free and wild thinking† and how that thinking is central to the value of the work as a whole. Support your ideas with specific references to the work you choose. 1999. The eighteenth-century British novelist Laurence Sterne wrote, â€Å"No body, but he who has felt it, can conceive what a plaguing thing it is to have a man's mind torn asunder by two projects of equal strength, both obstinately pulling in a contrary direction at the same time. From a novel or play choose a character (not necessarily the protagonist) whose mind is pulled in conflicting directions by two compelling desires, ambitions, obligations, or influences. Then, in a well-organized essay, identify each of the two conflicting forces and explain how this conflict with one character illuminates the meaning of the work as a whole. You may use one of the novels or plays listed below or another novel or work of similar literary quality. 2000. Many works of literature not readily identified with the mystery or detective story genre nonetheless involve the investigation of a mystery.In these works, the solution to the mystery may be less important than the knowledge gained in the process of its investigation. Choose a novel or play in which one or more of the ch aracters confront a mystery. Then write an essay in which you identify the mystery and explain how the investigation illuminates the meaning of the work as a whole. Do not merely summarize the plot. 2001. One definition of madness is â€Å"mental delusion or the eccentric behavior arising from it. † But Emily Dickinson wrote Much madness is divinest Sense- To a discerning Eye-Novelists and playwrights have often seen madness with a â€Å"discerning Eye. † Select a novel or play in which a character's apparent madness or irrational behavior plays an important role. Then write a well-organized essay in which you explain what this delusion or eccentric behavior consists of and how it might be judged reasonable. Explain the significance of the â€Å"madness† to the work as a whole. Do not merely summarize the plot. 2002. Morally ambiguous characters — characters whose behavior discourages readers from identifying them as purely evil or purely good — ar e at the heart of many works of literature.Choose a novel or play in which a morally ambiguous character plays a pivotal role. Then write an essay in which you explain how the character can be viewed as morally ambiguous and why his or her moral ambiguity is significant to the work as a whole. Avoid mere plot summary. 2002, Form B. Often in literature, a character's success in achieving goals depends on keeping a secret and divulging it only at the right moment, if at all. Choose a novel or play of literary merit that requires a character to keep a secret.In a well-organized essay, briefly explain the necessity for secrecy and how the character's choice to reveal or keep the secret affects the plot and contributes to the meaning of the work as a whole. You may select a work from the list below, or you may choose another work of recognized literary merit suitable to the topic. Do NOT write about a short story, poem, or film. 2003. According to critic Northrop Frye, â€Å"Tragic hero es are so much the highest points in their human landscape that they seem the inevitable conductors of the power about them, great trees more likely to be struck by lightning than a clump of grass.Conductors may of course be instruments as well as victims of the divisive lightning. † Select a novel or play in which a tragic figure functions as an instrument of the suffering of others. Then write an essay in which you explain how the suffering brought upon others by that figure contributes to the tragic vision of the work as a whole. 2003, Form B. Novels and plays often depict characters caught between colliding cultures — national, regional, ethnic, religious, institutional. Such collisions can call a character's sense of identity into question.Select a novel or play in which a character responds to such a cultural collison. Then write a well-organized essay in which you describe the character's response and explain its relevance to the work as a whole. 2004. Critic Rol and Barthes has said, â€Å"Literature is the question minus the answer. † Choose a novel, or play, and, considering Barthes' observation, write an essay in which you analyze a central question the work raises and the extent to which it offers answers. Explain how the author's treatment of this question affects your understanding of the work as a whole. Avoid mere plot summary. 004, Form B. The most important themes in literature are sometimes developed in scenes in which a death or deaths take place. Choose a novel or play and write a well-organized essay in which you show how a specific death scene helps to illuminate the meaning of the work as a whole. Avoid mere plot summary. 2005. In Kate Chopin's The Awakening (1899), protagonist Edna Pontellier is said to possess â€Å"That outward existence which conforms, the inward life that questions. † In a novel or play that you have studied, identify a character who outwardly conforms while questioning inwardly.Then write an essay in which you analyze how this tension between outward conformity and inward questioning contributes to the meaning of the work. Avoid mere plot summary. 2005, Form B. One of the strongest human drives seems to be a desire for power. Write an essay in which you discuss how a character in a novel or a drama struggles to free himself or herself from the power of others or seeks to gain power over others. Be sure to demonstrate in your essay how the author uses this power struggle to enhance the meaning of the work. 2006. Many writers use a country setting to establish values within a work of literature.For example, the country may be a place of virtue and peace or one of primitivism and ignorance. Choose a novel or play in which such a setting plays a significant role. Then write an essay in which you analyze how the country setting functions in the work as a whole. 2006, Form B. In many works of literature, a physical journey – the literal movement from one place to a nother – plays a central role. Choose a novel, play, or epic poem in which a physical journey is an important element and discuss how the journey adds to the meaning of the work as a whole. Avoid mere plot summary. 2007.In many works of literature, past events can affect, positively or negatively, the present activities, attitudes, or values of a character. Choose a novel or play in which a character must contend with some aspect of the past, either personal or societal. Then write an essay in which you show how the character's relationship to the past contributes to the meaning of the work as a whole. 2007, Form B. Works of literature often depict acts of betrayal. Friends and even family may betray a protagonist; main characters may likewise be guilty of treachery or may betray their own values.Select a novel or play that includes such acts of betrayal. Then, in a well-written essay, analyze the nature of the betrayal and show how it contributes to the meaning of the work a s a whole. 2008. In a literary work, a minor character, often known as a foil, possesses traits that emphasize, by contrast or comparison, the distinctive characteristics and qualities of the main character. For example, the ideas or behavior of a minor character might be used to highlight the weaknesses or strengths of the main character. Choose a novel or play in which a minor haracter serves as a foil for the main character. Then write an essay in which you analyze how the relation between the minor character and the major character illuminates the meaning of the work. 2008, Form B. In some works of literature, childhood and adolescence are portrayed as times graced by innocence and a sense of wonder; in other works, they are depicted as times of tribulation and terror. Focusing on a single novel or play, explain how its representation of childhood or adolescence shapes the meaning of the work as a whole. 2009.A symbol is an object, action, or event that represents something or t hat creates a range of associations beyond itself. In literary works a symbol can express an idea, clarify meaning, or enlarge literal meaning. Select a novel or play and, focusing on one symbol, write an essay analyzing how that symbol functions in the work and what it reveals about the characters or themes of the work as a whole. Do not merely summarize the plot. 2009, Form B. Many works of literature deal with political or social issues. Choose a novel or play that focuses on a political or social issue.Then write an essay in which you analyze how the author uses literary elements to explore this issue and explain how the issue contributes to the meaning of the work as a whole. Do not merely summarize the plot. 2010, Form A. Palestinian American literary theorist and cultural critic Edward Said has written that â€Å"Exile is strangely compelling to think about but terrible to experience. It is the unhealable rift forced between a human being and a native place, between the self and its true home: its essential sadness can never be surmounted. † Yet Said has also said that exile can become â€Å"a potent, even enriching† experience.Select a novel, play, or epic in which a character experiences such a rift and becomes cut off from â€Å"home,† whether that home is the character’s birthplace, family, homeland, or other special place. Then write an essay in which you analyze how the character’s experience with exile is both alienating and enriching, and how this experience illuminates the meaning of the work as a whole. You may choose a work from the list below or one of comparable literary merit. Do not merely summarize the plot. 2010 Form B. â€Å"You can leave home all you want, but home will never leave you. —Sonsyrea Tate. Sonsyrea Tate’s statement suggests that â€Å"home† may be conceived of as a dwelling, a place, or a state of mind. It may have positive or negative associations, but in either ca se, it may have a considerable influence on an individual. Choose a novel or play in which a central character leaves home yet finds that home remains significant. Write a well-developed essay in which you analyze the importance of â€Å"home† to this character and the reasons for its continuing influence. Explain how the character’s idea of home illuminates the larger meaning of the work.Choose a work from the list below or another appropriate novel or play of comparable literary merit. Do not merely summarize the plot. 2011. In a novel by William Styron, a father tells his son that life â€Å"is a search for justice. † Choose a character from a novel or play who responds in some significant way to justice or injustice. Then write a well-developed essay in which you analyze the character’s understanding of justice, the degree to which the character’s search for justice is successful and the significance of this search for the work as a whole. 2011 , Form B.In The Writing of Fiction (1925), novelist Edith Wharton states the following: At every stage in the progress of his tale the novelist must rely on what may be called the illuminating incident to reveal and emphasize the inner meaning of each situation. Illuminating incidents are the magic casements of fiction, its vistas on infinity. Choose a novel or play that you have studied and write a well-organized essay in which you describe an â€Å"illuminating† episode or moment and explain how it functions as a â€Å"casement,† a window that opens onto the meaning of the work as a whole.Avoid mere plot summary. 2012. â€Å"And, after all, our surroundings influence our lives and characters as much as fate, destiny or any supernatural agency. † Pauline Hopkins, Contending Forces. Choose a novel or play in which cultural, physical, or geographical surroundings shape psychological or moral traits in a character. Then write a well-organized essay in which you an alyze how surroundings affect this character and illuminate the meaning of the work as a whole. Do not merely summarize the plot.

The Unusual Details About 5th Grade Timed Essay Samples That Most People Dont Know About

The Unusual Details About 5th Grade Timed Essay Samples That Most People Don't Know About Life, Death and 5th Grade Timed Essay Samples Scoring criteria is set out in the video at the summit of the webpage. Mechanical Conventions The degree to which you express ideas employing Standard Written English. Listed below are exercises to put in your everyday writing practice. Knowing and practicing in the format of the true test will greatly boost the odds of a terrific score on any essay. The items covered below this criterion are the absolute most important in regards to writing a strong essay. Inside this section you will locate samples of essays belonging to several essay types and manners of formatting. We offer you lots of essay samples that may offer you a vivid illustration of how the essay of this or that type needs to be written. This blog post will offer you all of the tools you should learn to compose a timed essay in 45 minutes or less. Writing is given much value in school because it is the bedrock of the other subjects too. The secret to writing timed essay is to stick to the five-paragraph form. The very first step in writing the timed essay is to thoroughly choose the topic in case you have a choice or to carefully think about the question asked by the instructor. Write down key thoughts and facts you know more about the question. Likewise, it has to be logically complete and express a particular idea. Jot down every thing you know more about the topic. If you don't know the answer, you need to make an educated guess. Organize your arguments in a sense that will make it possible for them to flow easily from 1 paragraph to the next when producing a continuously stronger case for those ideas expressed in your essay. It's composed of a hook, background info, and a thesis statement. The debut of each written work ought to have a very clear thesis statement or argument. It is possible to rewrite the prompt to earn more feeling of the fundamental premise of the question. A comma after art would produce the sentence flow a little better. A prompt is typically a brief statement that makes but half sense and is largely incomplete. Consider how you would rewrite the next sentence based on the directions given, and select the ideal answer. 10-11 year-old 5th graders are anticipated in order to organize their ideas and structure sentences well. Fifth grade students utilize every phase of the writing procedure and continue to construct their understanding of writing conventions. Whatever test your son or daughter is supposed to take, we provide a wide range of different practice packs, full of questions and answers, study guides, and useful details. Some children may benefit from retention and the excess year to help with their academic improvement. At the base of the test, you'll be given your results. Learn how TestPrep-Online can aid with preparation for your kid's reading test or retake. To be prepared for today's lesson, there's a small amount of teacher preparation work to be carried out. The process doesn't need to be stressful. Search for any mistakes in case you have time. Keep a watch out for the clock to make sure you're always on track. Don't forget to always keep your eye on the clock. It's known that each and every fantastic thing starts with small measures. Don't neglect to leave a couple of minutes to review and edit your work to ensure it is logical. In this way, if you crash out of time, you will have already covered the more important stuff. If it comes to test time, you will know precisely where to go for information, and you won't waste time hoping to find the ideal quote.

Government Debt Budget - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 25 Words: 7436 Downloads: 3 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Statistics Essay Did you like this example? Abstract The unprecedented UK budget deficits have drawn sufficient attention to the issue of the ability of the government to finance these deficits continuously by borrowing ever-increasing amounts from domestic and foreign residents by issuing government bonds. What might be particularly worrisome is that, since the 1980s, the UK government has been issuing debt (borrowing) in the current time period to pay back the principal and interest due on the debt it issued in previous periods. In other words, it has been simply rolling over increasingly large chunks of government bonds. Adding to this concern is the belief intrinsic to most individuals that there is something inherently wrong with deficits and that, eventually, they would have to be reduced to zero. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "Government Debt Budget" essay for you Create order Introduction Balancing the budget is like going to heaven: everybody wants to balance the budget, but nobody wants to do what you have to do to balance the budget Senator Phil Gramm (R Tex.), 1990. Throughout the ages, national economies have experienced repeated fluctuations about trend in output, employment, prices, and interest rates, known as business cycles. Many explanations have been offered for these fluctuations in economic activity. They range from sudden supply-side disturbances, or shocks, caused by changes in technology or adverse weather conditions, to unanticipated changes in the money supply. Early business cycle theories assumed that the fluctuations in output and prices about trend were caused by the internal dynamics of a market economy. Sustained economic growth was thought to place severe strains upon the economy. For example, after a prolonged economic recovery, the continually increasing aggregate demand might cause wages and input costs to rise faster than selling prices. This, according to the early theories, would lead to a cutback in business investment and employment as firms, particularly those that had overinvested earlier, started to experience shrinking profits. This link between real and nominal variables, coming in the wake of a sustained period of recovery, was thought to cause recessions. During the era of the gold standard and fixed exchange rates, it was widely believed that business cycles were transmitted across national boundaries by detrimental fiscal and monetary policies of countries that were trading partners. Most of the early theories were in the gold standard era, and hence financial factors such as bank panics, shortages of liquidity, and fluctuations in interest rates were thought to be primarily responsible for economic downturns. While economists are by no means unanimous in their analyses of business cycles, the trend today is towards a demand-side money-induced explanation of these cycles in economic activity (Lucas, pp. 7-8). Since 1980s in United Kingdom there has been a growing feeling amongst economists and policy makers that an increase in taxes in the future is inevitable. Nervousness about the large bond-financed deficits compounded by doomsday predictions in the media has convinced workers that the tax cuts are temporary. This has stunted the outward shift of labor supply and labor demand. It remains to be seen if the present administration does keep taxes at the low levels of 1987 and 1988, or conveniently ignores election year promises and raises them. In this world of individuals with rational expectations, the results of the policies of any one administration are strongly contingent on the expectations of individuals regarding the continuation of these policies by succeeding administrations. Once again, we must remember that policy is not a one-shot deal, but a rule or a sequence extending into the future and the past. Economists tend to view the aggregate effects of fiscal policy from one of three perspectives. To sharpen the distinctions among them, it is helpful to consider a deficit induced by a lump-sum tax cut today followed by a lump-sum tax increase in the future, holding the path of government purchases and marginal tax rates constant. Under the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis proposed by Barro, such a deficit will be fully offset by an increase in private saving, as taxpayers recognize that the tax is merely postponed, not canceled. The offsetting increase in private saving means that the deficit will have no effect on national saving, interest rates, exchange rates, future domestic production, or future national income. A second model, the small open economy view, suggests that budget deficits do reduce national saving but, at the same time, induce increased capital inflows from abroad that finance the entire reduction. As a result, domestic production does not decline and interest rate s do not rise, but future national income falls because of the added burden of servicing the increased foreign debt. A third model, which we call the conventional view, likewise holds that deficits reduce national saving but that this reduction is at least partly reflected in lower domestic investment. In this model, budget deficits partly crowd out private investment and partly increase borrowing from abroad; the combined effect reduces future national income and future domestic production. The reduction in domestic investment in this model is brought about by an increase in interest rates, thus establishing a connection between deficits and interest rates. Budget deficits are financed by issuing government bonds to domestic and foreign residents (borrowing) or by selling bonds to the central bank (monetizing the debt). The processes of government spending, taxes, and money creation are linked quite explicitly by the arithmetic of the intertemporal budget constraint. The most important sources of tax revenue for the government are income taxes, corporate taxes, and payroll taxes. As all these tax revenues are functions of the national income, they consequently decrease when GNP falls, or when the economy goes into recession. On the other hand, transfer payments such as unemployment benefits increase in recessions, thereby causing budget deficits to rise in periods of economic sluggishness, even in the absence of any change in fiscal policy. Because of this independence of the magnitude of the deficit to changes in policy, many economists feel that less attention should be paid to the actual deficit and more to what is known as the high-employment or the standardized-employment deficit (also full-employment deficit, structural deficit). This is a hypothetical construct that replaces both the actual government spending and tax revenues in the actual budget by estimates of what government spending and tax revenues would be, given current tax rates a nd spending provisions, if the economy were operating at full employment. A 6 per cent unemployment rate is assumed to be the full-employment mark in the UK. The high-employment deficit, therefore, is unaffected by the state of the economy, since it ignores the actual expenditures and tax revenues and instead focuses on what they would be at full employment. This measure of deficit changes only when specific policies change, and for this reason economists believe that it is a better indicator of fiscal policy than the actual deficit, as the aggregate business cycle effects have now been sifted out (Baumol and Blinder, pp. 288-290). The inflation-adjusted deficit is the actual deficit adjusted for the inflation component of the interest payments. When the UK government (or any borrower for that matter) pays interest on the government bonds outstanding in an inflationary environment, more dollars must be returned to the lender in recognition of the fact that inflation has eroded the purchasing power of the currency. These interest payments, made to restore the lenders purchasing power, exaggerate interest expenses and distort the government expenditure figures. To sift out this additional government expenditure due to inflation, we subtract the inflation premium from the interest paid on the national debt, thereby counting only the real interest payments, a technique which provides us with a more accurate measure of the deficits. Large budget deficits financed by money creation are widely believed to be the primary force sustaining prolonged high inflation processes. The relationship appears to be closer for hyperinflationary episodes, which are usually associated with the presence of massive budget deficits. Hyperinflation, understood in this paper as a process of accelerating inflation, in fact occurs because governments have unsustainably large budget deficits. Fiscal adjustment is a prerequisite for stopping hyperinflation. Suppose the economy is initially at a point like H, moving along the unstable path with accelerating inflation. The objective of the authorities is to move the economy to a stable stationary equilibrium such as A. This will require a reduction in the deficit to [d.sub.0]. However, this will not suffice to restore inflation stability since real money balances are below the steady state level (i.e., to the left of A); expansionary monetary policy is also needed. This can be achieved through an open market purchase of government bonds. Under rational expectations, the proper combination of fiscal and monetary policies will instantaneously stop hyperinflation (Grossman and Helpman, 1991). In this specific example, as proposed in Dornbusch (1986), expansionary monetary policy supports the fiscal effort. Indeed, an open market purchase of government bonds reduces the interest payments and the value of the total deficit. The government can thus take advantage of the higher demand for money to reduce the deficit. In this case, the reduction in the primary deficit would be smaller than would otherwise need to be. The once-and-for-all increase in the demand for money that results from a successful stabilization effort contributes to a permanent reduction in the deficit. The stabilization strategy just discussed is useful to explain the analytical implications of assuming partial adjustment in the money market and rational expectations vis--vis instantaneous adjustment in the money market and adaptive expectations. The reduced-form dynamic equations are similar in both cases. However, as just shown, when the right policy combination is followed, hyperinflation can be controlled instantaneously in the former case, while it will at best be reduced through a gradual process in the latter. The rigidity in expectations creates a strong barrier to rapid reductions in inflation. There are useful insights regarding the role of tight fiscal policy in anti-inflation programs. First, it is apparent that small reductions in the deficit may not be sufficient to reduce permanently the rate of inflation. Second, it was also argued that there is not a one-to-one relation between deficits and inflation rates; while a given budget deficit might be associated with a stable rate of inflation under one set of initial conditions, it could also lead to an unstable path of prices under others. Finally, there is an interesting asymmetry emerging from this model. While small increases in the budget deficit can move the economy into unstable paths that can eventually result in large increases in inflation, stabilization of the rate of inflation (once the economy is moving along the unstable path) can require even larger contractions in the fiscal deficit. In particular, if the economy is in a sufficiently hyperinflationary state, the monetary authorities might find that the onl y feasible stabilizing alternative is the complete elimination of the use of inflationary finance. In this paper it is shown that under plausible assumptions regarding the adjustment of the money market it is possible to find conditions under which large money-financed deficits can lead to hyperinflation even when agents have perfect foresight. The basic analytical framework is similar to the one used in Sargent and Wallace (1973), Evans and Yarrow (1981), Bruno and Fischer (1986), Dornbusch and Fischer (1986), and Buiter (1987). It assumes that budget deficits are entirely financed through seigniorage, a Cagan-type demand for money function and rational expectations (which in the present model, given the absence of uncertainty, is equivalent to perfect foresight). The main difference is that in the present model the money market does not clear instantaneously. Literature review The adjusted deficit values, therefore, assist us in putting the deficits in perspective and enable us to attribute changes in deficits to specific policy regimes. Another important form of measurement of the budget deficit is the primary deficit. The total budget deficit can be divided into two components: the primary or non-interest deficit, and the interest payments on the public debt, that is Total deficit = primary deficit + interest payments The primary deficit therefore represents all government outlays, except interest payments, less all government revenue. This definition will have huge significance when we discuss the role of the interest payments on outstanding government bonds. The overall budget might be in deficit even if the primary deficit is in surplus (or when we have a primary surplus). This is because in every time period the government makes a significant amount of interest payments on past debt. After mandatory spending, interest payments constitute the second largest chunk of UK government expenditures. Thus we can see that the overall budget will be in deficit unless the interest payments on the existing debt are more than matched by a primary surplus (Dornbusch and Fischer, pp. 581-583). According to Dornbusch and Fischer, this forms the core of the mechanics of deficit financing (p. 597). They write: If there is a primary deficit in the budget, then the total budget deficit will keep growing as the de bt grows because of the deficit, and interest payments rise because the debt is growing. As in Diamond (1965), a deficit is created by the government once and for all increasing its debt by reducing taxes on personal incomes. This is equivalent to the government transferring new bonds to the households. The traditional assumption has been that in subsequent periods taxes on personal incomes are raised in order to pay the interest on this additional debt. Instead, in the present paper I consider the case in which it is the future taxes on corporations that are raised. In the present model we find that, because taxes on personal incomes are discounted at a higher rate than the interest on government debt, deficits financed by raising future taxes on personal incomes increase wealth and aggregate expenditure, causing a current account deficit. This is the general view about the effects of deficits in finite horizon models. We, however, find that unanticipated deficits financed by raising future taxes on corporate incomes are neutral. This result arises because corporations, unlike households, are infinitely lived, and therefore taxes on corporations are discounted at the same rate as the interest on government debt. Thus, when the government incurs a deficit by transferring new bonds to the households, and it announces that it is going to raise taxes on corporations to pay the interest on these new bonds, the value of shares in corporations falls by the same amount as the value of new bonds that are issued, leaving wealth and aggregate expenditure unchanged. A correction of the fiscal imbalance has been crucial for stopping hyperinflation. This factor is well documented in the works of Yeager (1981), Sargent and Wallace (1973), and Webb (1986) on the hyperinflation episodes in the central European countries and United Kingdom on the episodes of recessions. Substantial reductions in the budget deficit, monetary reform, and a fixed exchange rate were crucial for the successful stabilization policies in those countries. Indeed, fiscal restraint, which in most cases meant outright elimination of the budget deficit, was probably the most important of these policy measures. One distinctive feature of hyperinflationary episodes is that the rate of inflation accelerates over time, thus suggesting that these processes are inherently unstable. Cagans seminal work on this issue provides an alternative interpretation. In Cagans view hyperinflationary episodes could only be unstable if they were self-generating, and he considered that although there is no reason why (self-generating inflations) could not occur; so far they have just not been observed (p. 73). However, Cagans stability analysis only considers the case in which the money process was exogenous. If one extends Cagans seminal paper through the introduction of money-financed budget deficits and rational expectations, and then analyzes the dynamic properties of the system, as was recently done by Evans and Yarrow (1981), Kiguel (1986), and Buiter (1987), the results are astonishing. Large money-financed budget deficits could be the source of instability; however, they could only lead to hyperdeflation. These deficits can never be the source of hyperinflation. The presence of large budget deficits in a perfect foresight framework has a surprising effect on the dynamic behavior of inflation. Auernheimer (1976), Evans and Yarrow (1981), and Kiguel (1986) showed that in order to obtain a hyperinflationary process one needs to assume adaptive expectations. In other words, in Cagans framework, large budget deficits could result in hyperinflation only when agents make systematic mistakes in forecasting the rate of inflation. It has been recognized for some time that it is very difficult to justify the use of adaptive expectations in macroeconomic models. Economic agents eventually learn the process that generates inflation, and they will use that information in the formation of their forecasts on inflation. As a result, it is difficult to accept that large budget deficits would lead to accelerating inflation only in the presence of systematic mistakes. The effect of anticipated deficits financed by taxing corporate incomes is the exact opposite of the conventional view about anticipated deficits in finite horizon models. If the government announces that at some future date it will incur a deficit by issuing new bonds to the households, and that corporate income taxes are going to be raised in the periods after that in order to pay the interest on this debt, then at the time the policy is announced aggregate wealth will fall, for the following reason. As taxes on corporations are discounted at the same rate as the interest on government debt, the present value of the taxes is equal to the value of the bonds transferred to the households as of the time that the policy is carried out. However, when the policy is announced households are not sure that they will survive to collect the transfer of bonds. Thus, they discount these transfers at a higher rate than the market rate of interest. On the other hand, as corporations are infinitel y lived, the valuation of shares in corporation is such that taxes will be discounted at the market rate of interest. This then means that at the time the policy is announced aggregate wealth and expenditure will fall, causing a current account surplus. This result is the opposite of the conventional view about the effects of anticipated deficits in finite horizon models, as emphasized by, for example, Feldstein (1983), and Frenkel and Razin (1986). Finally, the fact that taxes on corporations in UK are discounted at a lower rate than taxes on personal incomes means that a revenue neutral tax reform involving a shift in taxes from personal incomes to corporate incomes will result in a loss of wealth and a fall in aggregate expenditure, causing a current account surplus. Much of the literature on monetary unions has concentrated on their effects on trade and hence on the effects on the efficiency with which factors of production are used. Rose (2000) shows, in a multi-country panel study, that there may be significant effects on trade from membership of a monetary union. Whilst Honahan (2001) does not dispute the potential for benefits, he points out that much of the weight in Roses results comes from small countries leaving (or sometimes joining) colonial and post-colonial monetary unions. These decisions were often associated with a bundle of changes in relation to partner countries that themselves had a major impact on trade. Given that there are likely to be reasonably large gains in the scale of trade from joining a monetary union, there are also likely to be significant increases in the level of output. Grossman and Helpman (1991) argue that there is a strong link between openness and growth and much of the evidence is surveyed in Pain (2002). These gains come from the arrival of new technologies, increases in specialization by comparative advantage and the reaping of economies of scale within industries that have become more specialized. In addition, a monetary union reduces the barriers to trade even within a common customs area by reducing transactions costs, and this is likely to have a major impact on the level of output that can be produced with a given level of inputs. Given the theoretical importance of the output gap, it is unfortunate that its measurement is so problematic. This will always be the case however when we are trying to separate out high frequency events such as the business cycle from low frequency events or persistent phenomena such as the trend in potential output. As Watson (1986) points out, a time series of 30 years could contain a significant number of examples of cycles of periods of less than 5 years, yet only a few examples of cycles of 10 years or more. Therefore we have more information in a finite sample on the shorter cycles, and correspondingly less information on longer cycles and the permanent shocks (which can be regarded as infinitely long cycles). Techniques for trend extraction have to address this problem directly, and filters for trend extraction are designed to remove specific frequencies and, in particular, cycles from the data under consideration. The central point of Feldstein (1986) article is to present empirical evidence in support of the view that budget deficits cause a currency to appreciate. He regresses the real exchange rate between the U.S. and UK on a measure of the budget deficit in the United Kingdom and a set of other variables. For the period 1973 to 1984 (twelve annual observations), he finds that the estimated effects on the real exchange rate are strong and robust to the inclusion or exclusion of other variables. Branson and Love (1988), on the other hand, outline a theory that assumes that the movements in the nominal exchange rate cause movements in the real exchange rate. These, in turn, cause movements in the supply of (tradable and non-tradable) output and employment and, hence, the trade balance. Their empirical results indicate that appreciation of dollar over the period caused a large unemployment loss in manufacturing. Barth et al. (1990) note that the choice for measuring of the deficit affects the nature of the linkage between deficits and interest rates. Specifically, studies that use cyclically adjusted deficits or federal debt instead of federal deficits are more likely to find a significant relation between the fiscal variable and interest rates. Recent evidence reported by Barth et al. conforms with these observations. Barth et al. (1990) also conclude that low frequency data (annual versus quarterly or monthly) and long-term interest rates (instead of short-term rates) are more likely to produce a significant relation between deficits and interest rates. However, recent studies do not support these generalizations. The summary shows that many studies that use quarterly data yield a significant relation between deficits and interest rates (e.g., Bruno and Fischer, 1986; Dornbusch and Fischer, 1986; Buiter, 1987). Moreover, several of the studies surveyed (e.g., Honahan, 2001; Rose, 2000) find a significant relation for short-term interest rates. Barth et al. (1990) note that expected deficits play a greater role than contemporaneous deficits for long-term rates. One should note that results of all such studies are sensitive to the measurement of expected deficits. Frenkel and Razin (1986) find that announcement effects of the unanticipated deficit on interest rates are positive and about the same throughout the yield curve. Both rational expectations studies (Bruno and Fischer, 1986; Dornbusch, 1986) find positive relations, one for long-term rates and one for short-term. Finally, Feldstein (1983) and Dornbusch and Fischer (1986) find a positive relation between 10-year rates and projected cyclically adjusted deficit as a percent of GNP. Therefore, this relation apparently does exist for long-term rates, but concluding the same for short-term rates would be premature. Discussion The politics of tax cuts are not necessarily straightforward. Since the UK Budget of March 1993, discretionary tax increases have added about [pounds] 18 billion to expected tax revenue in 1996/97. It might therefore appear odd to the electorate for there to be a remittance of [pounds] 5 billion of these tax revenues as an election approaches. However, a reasonable defense of this might be that the fiscal position has turned out to be better than originally forecast. When the first tranche of tax increases was announced in the March 1993 Budget it was expected that even with the additional revenue the PSBR to GDP ratio in 1996/97 would be 4 1/2 per cent of GDP. The additional fiscal changes announced in the November 1993 Budget contributed to a reduction in the forecast deficit to 2 3/4 per cent of GDP. Now, with no further tax changes the Treasury is forecasting that the deficit will be 2 per cent of GDP, substantially lower than they first thought it would be. In terms of the economics of the UK Budget judgment, the slowdown in economic activity that appears to be occurring, especially the very weak state of domestic demand would appear to allow some relaxation of the fiscal stance. In addition, our projections suggest that even after allowing for tax cuts the general government financial deficit will fall below the 3 per cent reference level for the European Union excessive deficits procedure. The main difficulty with the tax cuts is that they retard the progress that the government has made in reducing its borrowing towards the level that would be permitted by the so-called golden rule that the government borrow no more than is necessary to finance investment. This may be seen either in balance sheet terms or by examining borrowing in relation to investment expenditure. The consequence of the deterioration in the public sectors balance sheet is that this years taxpayers are leaving more liabilities and fewer assets to next years taxpayers than they started with. This suggests that the future services provided by public sector capital will be lower and debt interest higher than they would otherwise have been. This means that future taxes need to be higher in order to pay for the extra debt interest. This situation can be prevented by the government following the golden rule that borrowing be no more than is necessary to finance capital investment. Deficits have to be financed either by issuing debt or by creating base money. Sargent and Wallace (1973) have argued that persistent budget deficits will eventually result either in monetization of the outstanding stock of debt, thus depriving the monetary authorities of their autonomy in setting policy targets, or in a repudiation of at least part of the debt. Hence lack of fiscal discipline could undermine the independence of a newly created European Central Bank, which might come under potential pressure to loosen its policy stance if some member states had serious budgetary problems. Its credibility could be affected if agents thought that a softer stance would become inevitable to alleviate the financial difficulties of highly indebted countries running large deficits. One of the consequences would be an increase in interest rates reflecting a revision in expectations incorporating higher future inflation rates. Fiscal discipline would still be a major concern even if the UK monetary authorities remained steadfast in their anti-inflationary commitment, because those states with unsustainable fiscal positions might have to pull out, whose irreversibility would then be questioned. As a result, markets could take a different view of the degree of substitutability of the assets issued by the different countries. Furthermore, other externalities would be at work, in the form of pressure on other member states to come to the rescue of those with unsustainable debt/deficit paths. Another possibility is that conflicts would arise on issues related to the distribution of (seigniorage) among member countries (Pain, 2002). Other consequences for the country as a whole of the lack of fiscal discipline would be a general rise in interest rates and an external deficit for Europe vis--vis the rest of the world, with adverse effects on the ECU exchange rate. As to the introduction of binding fiscal constra ints, the argument is often put forward in the literature that they may appear to improve welfare, but only if the existence of a trade-off between fiscal and monetary policy is ignored (Pain, 2002). Development of a government bond market provides a number of important benefits if the prerequisites to a sound development are in place. At the macroeconomic policy level, the UK government securities market provides an avenue for domestic funding of budget deficits other than that provided by the central bank and, thereby, can reduce the need for direct and potentially damaging monetary financing of government deficits and avoid a build-up of foreign currency denominated debt. A government securities market can also strengthen the transmission and implementation of monetary policy, including the achievement of monetary targets or inflation objectives, and can enable the use of market-based indirect monetary policy instruments. The existence of such a market not only can enable authorities to smooth consumption and investment expenditures in response to shocks, but if coupled with sound debt management, can also help governments reduce their exposure to interest rate, currency, and other financial risks. Finally, a shift toward market-oriented funding of government budget deficits will reduce debt-service costs over the medium to long term through development of a deep and liquid market for government securities. At the microeconomic level, development of a domestic securities market can increase overall financial stability and improve financial intermediation through greater competition and development of related financial infrastructure, products, and services. The creation of a monetary union will inevitably affect the setting of fiscal policy. Even if only monetary policy becomes the responsibility of the new institutions, with fiscal policy remaining in the domain of national government, the fact that they will no longer be able to monetize debt has implications for policy choices. Fiscal policy may play a more important role as a stabilization tool. In the standard Mundell-Fleming framework, in which sticky prices are assumed (Frankel and Razin, 1987) fiscal policy is most effective when exchange rates are fixed and there are free capital movements, conditions which has to be fulfilled by the UK government. Because in a fixed rate system a fiscal expansion does not lead to a rise in interest rates and to an appreciation of the exchange rate, some countries might resort more frequently to fiscal measures to respond to shocks, especially if they are country-specific. Such budgetary policies could result in a looser overall fiscal stance, especially if the fiscal authorities failed to distinguish between temporary and permanent shocks. It is often claimed that fiscal policy is the appropriate policy response only to the former, whereas the latter require factor price adjustment, either on its own or in combination with migration (Grossman, G.M. and Helpman, 1991). An active money market is a prerequisite for UK government securities market development. A money market supports the bond market by increasing the liquidity of securities. It also makes it easier for financial institutions to cover short-term liquidity needs and makes it less risky and cheaper to warehouse government securities for on-sale to investors and to fund trading portfolios of securities. Where short-term interest rates have been liberalized, development of money and government securities markets can go hand in hand. When a money market has materialized and the government securities market is ready to take hold, coordination with monetary policy operations becomes essential for sound market development. Monetary policy operations are the responsibility of the monetary authorities and have increasingly been left solely to the purview of the central bank. There are, however, some overlapping areas requiring coordination between the government securities market and the money m arket. In a recession the ability of UK national government to conduct countercyclical macroeconomic policies will be limited by the fact that they can not print money to finance their fiscal deficits and meet their maturing obligations. A well-functioning government may create a centralized mechanism to at least coordinate fiscal policy across member states. Previous experiences of international coordination suggest that such arrangements are rather ineffectual as a means of counteracting cyclical fluctuations, mainly because the time lags normally associated with fiscal policy become even longer when agreement has to be reached at a supra-national level before national governments can carry out the agreed policies. While fiscal coordination may be apt in the case of a prolonged recession, the arguments for centralized decision-making are less convincing when fiscal tightening is called for, because the national government is not likely to be willing to adopt unpopular policies to follow t he directives of the central UK authorities. On these grounds, therefore, it is difficult to argue in favour of a permanent UK body exercising control over national fiscal policies. It is easy for commentators in the UK to observe that other countries have fiscal positions worse than our own, although the current situation in the UK is no longer very different from that in France or Germany. It is less well understood that, in many important respects, a house price boom has an impact similar to that of a sustained budget deficit. Budget deficits in both closed and open economies represent a means of depressing the productive capital stock in order to support current consumption. They are popular with voters and are likely to be particularly so as the proportion of old voters increases. Old voters can enjoy the benefits of government borrowing without having to face fully the reduced long-term income level arising from the depleted capital stock. Thus budget deficits serve to transfer resources from the young and the unborn to old people. Affect of budget deficits on the money market, for instance, house price booms have a similar effect. Rising house prices depress saving because they reduce the need to save for retirement. At the same time they represent a transfer of resources from young people who are not house-owners to old people who are house-owners. With an increasing proportion of old people in the economy they are also likely to be increasingly popular with an electorate in which children and those not yet born do not have the right to vote (Baumol and Blinder, 1985). The National Institute, along with others, has been surprised by the extent to which people are willing to incur debts, even though interest rates are currently very low; the slowdown in house prices we and others have expected has yet to materialize. At the same time it is unclear how far borrowers will be able to cope with an increase in interest rates towards the sort of normal levels. However, the basic economic point is that it makes little sense for the Government to be actively concerned about one mechanism (the budget deficit) which crowds out productive capital and transfers resources from future generations to the present while house prices continue to rise. There are a number of ways of moderating house price growth in addition to the supply improvement. A tax on housing transactions already exists in the form of stamp duty. It may discourage excessive trading but at the same time it reduces labor force mobility, which is bad for economic efficiency and discourages old people from moving from large family homes to smaller houses. It has little to recommend it either as a means of stabilizing the housing market or as a means of raising revenue. Most economists regard a tax on the benefit accruing to owner-occupiers as desirable, on the grounds that this would put home ownership on the same basis as the ownership of other forms of capital. Until 1960 owner-occupiers were credited with a notional rent on which they had to pay income tax. The rent was, however, based on the 1937 rateable value and was a gross underestimate of true market rent by 1960. Facing the choice between the politically unpopular move of raising the rental values to credible figures and abolishing a tax which did not raise much revenue, the government chose the latter. The reintroduction of such a tax would raise the cost of housing and encourage owner-occupiers to think more carefully about their housing needs. It would depress house prices, reducing the crowding-out effects mentioned above. On the other hand with the introduction of income tax shelters (PEPs and now ISAs) the argument for uniform tax treatment of income accruing to households from capital is not a strong as it was. The political difficulties are, in any case, obvious. A third mechanism is a tax on interest payments (Barth et al., 1990); this is appropriate if the economic problem is seen as excess credit rather than excess demand for homing per se. It could be levied through the VAT mechanism, so as to fall on consumer credit but not raise the cost of credit to businesses. It would be easier to vary this tax rate in the short term than would be possible with a Schedule A-type tax, and this is a real advantage. It would be self-enforcing because the courts would not enforce debts unless the creditor could show that tax had been collected on interest payments. Once again, however, there are political obstacles; such a tax could have been more easily introduced when HM Treasury still set interest rates and at a time when they were being reduced. Fourthly, reforming the Council Tax system, so that council tax payments are related to current property values and probably at a higher rate than at present, would go some way to discouraging over-investment in housing (Pain, 2002). This is an easier reform to deliver. Finally, if more borrowing is long-term, there may be less housing speculation simply because long-term interest rates move less than short-term interest rates but it is unlikely that this will solve the longer-term problem of steadily rising house prices and crowding out of productive capital. Fundamental to our concern about house price movements is the belief that the boom is continuing because retail borrowers believe that very low interest rates are likely to persist indefinitely. It is with this in mind that we now discuss the movements of interest rate expectations implicit in wholesale market movements this year. Sharply lower budget deficits or reductions in primary deficits or increases in primary surpluses (government budget imbalance less net interest) have also contributed to lower inflation in select developing nations, but the impact of deficits on inflation is not unambiguous or universal. In declining inflation nations like UK, the deficit-to-GDP ratio has receded but in others, like India, deficits have actually increased, as they did in deflation-plagued Japan in the 1990s. And, in any ease, in most nations, the present value of government indebtedness, including unfunded liabilities of public pensions and health care, has risen unabated. The increasingly credible monetary policy of the past 20 years suggests that central banks may not readily bail out egregiously irresponsible fiscal policy a realization that may encourage true fiscal reform although the true test of this will be the resolution of the fiscal gaps created by the aging populations in industrialized nations. The bo ttom line is that sound monetary policies have been the primary reason for lower inflation -and enhanced inflation fighting credibility. The standard view about the effects of budget deficits in finite horizon models is that they increase wealth and expenditure, causing a current account deficit. This view is based on the assumption that deficits imply higher future taxes on personal incomes. In this paper we have considered the effects of budget deficits financed by taxing corporate incomes. We have shown that unanticipated deficits financed by taxing corporate incomes reduce the value of equities by the same amount as the government debt issue, leaving wealth and expenditure unchanged. The most striking result was that anticipated deficits financed by taxing corporate incomes resulted in a loss of wealth and a current account surplus. Revenue-neutral tax reforms involving shifts in taxes from personal to corporate incomes reduced wealth and caused a current account surplus. Conclusion The balance of trade deficit supposedly grows from the budget deficit because it produced high interest rates, which in turn led to increased foreign lending to the United Kingdom, a squeeze on capital formation, and an overvalued pound sterling. Given this explanation, the strategic task is one of elimination of deficits and excessive rates of spending growth. This means that the policy initiatives designed to spur output growth and to lower inflation expectations and interest rates must carry a large share of the fiscal stabilization burden. A variety of tax changes a sort of kitchen-sink supply-side approach would spur growth: lowering the top personal marginal rate from 70 to 50 percent, further reductions in capital gains taxes, and depreciation changes. By including so many types of cuts, supply-side could be many things to many people and gain political support, a sort of politics of tactical inclusion. Interest is economic topic number one in UK. Why the focus on interest rates? The salience of interest rates lay in their national and local economic importance. For one, the political stratum and financial markets harped on it. High rates threaten to choke off the nascent recovery of 1983 and keep the economy in a state of permanent recession. Constituents also have complaints. Rates affect the economic base of communities back home; businesses and borrowers suffered directly, stimulating legislators to find ways to help. Rates are bad for business and consumers throughout my district and I sure hear about it. Stabilization worries and constituency protection needs fused around this problem; addressing it became tactically imperative. A macro fear grew among those in the political stratum that large and growing structural budget deficits would effectively crowd out private borrowers in capital markets and smother economic growth. The past recessions produced alarm for many in UK government who saw tight monetary policy combined with large deficits producing high real rates even while the economy was slumping. When you take the whole picture and look at it, what you wind up with is a massive conflict between fiscal and monetary policy which has caused high, high interest rates, which has aggravated our situation greatly. 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